He’s since won another five Supremes, each ridden by the stable jockey (Ruby four times, Paul Townend once). That Paul has opted for Tullyhill is a potential red herring this year because Mystical Power has a retained jockey – and there is nothing to separate them in the market as I write (Sunday afternoon). Well, classy types have a decent record in the race and Ballyadam, despite the steadier of twelve stone, has bundles of it. A hard task off top weight, but definitely one for those exacta and trifecta mixes.
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We’re talking the likes of Cause Of Causes, Tiger Roll, and Delta Work, all of them ‘medalling’ in the Grand National subsequently. And all of them trained by Gordon Elliott (by Bolts Up Daily proxy in one case), a man who trained a National winner before he’d trained a winner in his native Ireland. It’s pretty clumsy and there’s no getting away from that fact.
For all of the obvious upside of those ‘opening batsmen’, their second picks have arguably more substance in the book. Jonbon, representing Seven Barrows, is also unbeaten in four, a bumper and three hurdle races, most recently a couple of Grade 2 contests. The first of those was a steadily run small field heat, but the second, the Rossington Main at Haydock, was well contested and Jonbon came home in a good time. He’s not been nearly as flashy as those shorter in the market but he’s highly effective and has been well on top each time in spite of narrower margins of victory. Jonbon cost £570,000 after winning his point to point, a price based as much on being a full brother to Douvan as to the manner of his win between the flags.
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Horses that raced outside Graded/Listed company have a poor record. The graph illustrates a clear upwards trajectory with the last four years averaging out at just under 20 per meeting (19.5 to be precise). Essentially this means that around 70% of all races in the past four years have had an Irish-trained favourite. Compare this to the first five years (2008 to 2012) where the average was 7.4. My main focus will be looking at the data as a whole – market factors, last time out (LTO) factors, etc.
She will also have to prove her stamina on this first attempt beyond two miles, her pedigree not guaranteeing she’ll stay. Queen’s Brook will be Gordon Elliott’s hope for the race, the mare having run third in the 2020 Champion Bumper behind Ferny Hollow before skipping last year’s Festival. Her recent form is consistent and ties in with the likes of Burning Victory but she’s won only once from five starts over hurdles since her maiden score.
Just ask those that swear by each of the above, and the countless many other race betting systems out there. At the end of the day, this is a results business, and if a system isn’t driving results, punters won’t stick with it for long. While some will sneer at systems and programmatic strategies, the proof of the pudding is always in the eating. When it comes to racing, the sheer choice on the betting front is enormous, and, frankly, a little difficult to comprehend for a beginner.
Horse racing has long been one of the most popular sports in the UK, drawing audiences in the millions for some race events. Again, Betfair and Paddy Power have the largest availability of live streaming events, closely followed by SkyBet. At the time of writing, Paddy Power had an impressive 15 live streaming races – nearly double the 8 to be found on 888sport. Betfair allows you to stream their selection of live races from a minimum £0.50 bet. There, you will be able to see a list of all the runners and various stats about them such as their weights, ages, and jockeys.
If any horse can stop State Man’s procession to glory it might be Irish Point, in the Robcour colours and trained by Gordon Elliott. This time last year, while State Man was getting closest to Constitution Hill, Irish Point was winning a Grade 3 novice hurdle at Naas. He’s since won the 2m4f Grade 1 Mersey Novices’ at Aintree, and then this season he’s added a Grade 3 at Down Royal and the Grade 1 Christmas Hurdle at Leopardstown. But that Leopardstown race is contested over almost three miles and, as the name suggests, it was contested at the end of last year. It was a terrifically convincing score there but in a slow time beating (relatively) slow horses. I don’t see how that makes him second pick for a Champion Hurdle.
In another life his jockey Nico de Boinville might have been one of those soldiers who is unexceptional in peacetime but extraordinarily cool under fire. After Douvan had crashed out at the last ditch, while leading, there were five horses in with a chance turning in. High quality Saturday with the second day at Wetherby who feature a pair of Grade Two races plus a Listed.
LH – It’s a horse race (“thankfully”), and stuff can go wrong; but it will very much have to for CH to get beaten in the CH. I Like To Move It the “wise guy” horse but his forward-going style may not be suited to the tactical shape of the race. Any of Jason The Militant, Not So Sleepy, or the big pair of Constitution Hill and State Man could take them along.
Winners of one or two races on heavy are 1.4 times more likely to win than heavy maidens; and winners of three heavy ground races previously are more than 1.5 times more likely to prevail than maidens on that extreme of going. This horse is having its second run after a wind op and its first wearing a tongue tie. Both of those might be expected to eke out a little improvement; and look at the contextual snippets block – accessed by clicking the trainer icon (with the red box around it). There we see Fry’s two year record with handicap debutants at any track, which is fairly unexciting, but note above it his record when moving a horse notably in distance. A perfect example of a terrible race in need of a winner, with a single horse moderately favoured by conditions and within a few pounds (see right hand columns) of its last winning mark.
The percentage shown is the percentage of the total number of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones as you would expect them to do well. If that’s correct, we’d expect a steady tempo to the race; after all, if you’re leading without any contention, it makes sense usually to conserve as much energy for the finish as possible. With three or four habitual waited-with sorts in opposition, which if any have shown the ability to quicken off a potentially false gallop? Our Fast Finishers report suggests the well-backed Dingle, but only tentatively at best. The caveat is that we’re looking for a horse that we hope will get an uncontested lead; that is, one which looks as though it is the lone pace angle.
Hovering over the coloured blobs in the ‘Race Speed vs Par’ column (title unhelpfully obscured in the image above), shows the sectional percentages for our OMC (Opening / Mid-race / Closing) format. Identifying front runners is is a challenge, but these tables articulate unequivocally why it is worth our time to attempt that act of clairvoyance. Geegeez Pace Maps, available for every race, assist considerably with the challenge. Day 2 of the Cheltenham festival has been equally as magical as day 1, as we really have been treated to some incredible action. The best meetings are broadcast on either ITV or ITV4, with racing broadcast every single Saturday afternoon, plus lots of big festival meetings (like the famous Cheltenham Festival in March) which are staged through the week.
Strike rates are below what is the 14/1+ norm for all National Hunt races and losses have been significant. Indeed, Irish runners have outperformed UK runners in terms of win strike rate in the last ten festivals starting from 2013 as the graph below neatly illustrates. These figures are skewed inasmuch as the last five years have seen a big increase in the number of Irish horses travelling across. However, the win strike rate for Irish runners in the five years from 2008 to 2012 was 6.8%, whereas in the past five years (2018 to 2022) it has been 9.7%.
14/1 looks a very playable each way proposition, with the NRNB proviso. It is also true that RP has been dishing up in deep ground and it remains to be seen how he handles quicker terrain. For all of those reservations, he has been ultra-impressive visually, and his stamina combined with fluent jumping makes him a natural for a staying test like this. There are other credible contenders in the field, not least Galvin, but if Royale Pagaille lines up here rather than his other entries, he’ll take some beating.
The Mullins third string is an unbeaten-in-one ‘could be anything’ type called Bring On The Night. A progressive three-year-old when trained in France by Andre Fabre, it was nigh on two years thereafter that he made his timber debut at Naas. Impressive he was, too, coming right away from a large field of maidens in spite of bungling the final flight. It should be remembered that a maiden in late February will be easier to win than one in late November, most of the runners already multiple non-winners by then. Willie was quite bullish about his ability in recent stable tour chat but I thought he might have gone Ballymore rather than here.
My Mate Mozzie was only a length and a half behind Found A Fifty but hasn’t raced this year, and his best form looks to be on better ground. Mistergif led on his sole Irish start though that was a maiden hurdle only, while Tullyhill has led the last twice. Firefox has also led in two of his last three, likewise Tellherthename. Even to fast looks the most likely pace setup on the scant evidence we have. Mystical Power runs in the green and gold of JP McManus, but is co-owned by Susannah Ricci and Mrs John Magnier.
KARMOLOGY looks the solid option in this competitive fillies’ handicap. She’s usually very consistent but never showed up at Yarmouth last time. Her earlier form is very useful and she can give weight and a beating to her rivals. The selection has no room for error off top-weight, but no one rides the straight course at Ascot better than Spencer. The micro-systems above will provide plenty of action for those who like a mechanical approach.
Last year, five of the six horses sent off at 5/4 or shorter were beaten. This year, we look set to have at least five runners priced in that same bracket. Mishaps aside, it is hard (for me, at least) to make credible cases to oppose any of the quintet.
He really had to step at a few of the obstacles, but his engine proved far superior to his other graded rivals. Connections probably have eyes on the Gold Cup 2022 after that Cheltenham Festival Day 2 Winners display. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
There have been ten headgear-wearing winners of all aged handicap hurdles at the Cheltenham Festival since 2008, from 293 runners. That’s a 3.41% strike rate for a loss of 119 points (ROI -40.61). Those without headgear won 37 from 865 (4.28% SR, -256 at SP, ROI -29.6%). There’s no shortie in the betting this time, current prices being 3/1 and upwards your pick. Tenuously top of that pile is Telmesomethinggirl, trained by Henry de Bromhead and running in the Kenny Alexander colours of Honeysuckle, meaning it could be quite a 45 minutes or so for connections. This mare won the Dawn Run Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle at last year’s Festival over two miles, but has been beaten in all three starts since.
Just a slight cause for concern was the poor performances of Nicky Henderson’s runners yesterday. Since the early days, horse racing has grown from royal entertainment into big business. For most bookies, it remains their bread and butter, alongside football and tennis as the most popularly wagered sports. So you’ve done the legwork, found the perfect horse racing bookmaker, but now what? Well, it’s time to lay down a bet, and it really couldn’t be easier.
I suspect Latin Verse can similarly show that experience is no bad thing when it comes to the Boodles. At 33-1 and six places, he has to be worth a few quid each-way. Iberico Lord was supplemented for this after the defection of stablemate Constitution Hill, and he has serious handicap winning form this term. Specifically, he won the Greatwood over course and distance in November and then the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury in February.
More than that, the same horses seem to have hit the frame with regularity. In 2020, Ireland’s trainers saddled seven of the dozen runners, again taking top honours but this time ceding the consolation spots to the domestic quintet. Irish runners finished 1st, 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th, 10th and fell.
“I wouldn’t complain at Alexis (Pouchin); I’m happy with the ride, but he started galloping the last 200 metres when he had the gap. When he saw the horse coming along it was too late, the other two went already. But it was good to see that he is of the level to run with the best. “I just really hope the that one day they go a really good gallop so that we get to see him really show his true potential. At the moment he’s just showing how versatile he really is. POLITOLOGUE Has enjoyed a fine season but was no match for Altior at Newbury recently; tough and consistent, he has place prospects. DOUVAN Suffered serious injury in this race a year ago and not run since; hugely talented but remains to be seen if he can recover that level of form.
AL AASY is not getting any younger at the age of seven but looked at the peak of his powers when smashing the course record at Newbury last time. Al Qareem is a gritty front runner and showed plenty...
